Dr. James Beckett: Sports Card Insights

1191 - Dueling Questions with Joe Orlando, Part 2

We start with an exploration of our personal journeys through sports card collecting including their collecting methods and preferences, from set collecting to chasing color variations and autographs. They also walk through how their professional backgrounds have been instrumental in their contributions to the industry. Dr. Beckett possesses a Ph.D. in statistics while Orlando holds a law degree, both of which have offered them unique perspectives in handling their collections and understanding the market dynamics. Furthermore, the duo delve into the current state of the sports cards industry, emphasizing the constant innovation and experimentation which keeps it dynamic and interesting. Key business aspects including branding, universal acceptance, and reputation are highlighted as crucial factors that differentiate a major grading company or a major auction company in this competitive market. They also shed light on the essential role that auction houses and dealers play in authenticating and representing sports card products in the market. As key intermediaries in the value chain, these entities contribute significantly to customer education and trust building in the industry. Lastly, they reinforce the importance of brand recognition and provide insights into the interaction between grading entities and auction platforms, highlighting the symbiosis that exists between these essential industry players.

01:05 Collecting Journey and Challenges
03:18 The Impact of Education on Career
06:51 Appreciating the Current State of the Hobby
09:14 Defining Major Auction and Grading Companies
12:00 The Role of Dealers and Auction Houses

1190 - Out-Takes on PSA/SGC from Hobby Hotline 030224

Dr. James Beckett, alongside Hobby Hotline co-hosts Danny Black and Victor Roman, explores the repercussions of PSA's acquisition of SGC in the sports card collecting and grading industry, analyzing it as a strategic business move reflective of the hobby's trend towards consolidation. The conversation extends to speculate on potential future acquisitions by Fanatics and its impact on grading and market dynamics. We preview the introduction of a universal checklist and registry, discussing how it might affect collectors. The potential harmonization of grading standards between PSA and SGC, considering the historical differences and how it might unfold moving forward. Implications on set registries with the merging of companies are debated, pondering how such changes could affect collectors ranked within these systems. Dr. Beckett and his guests also ponder how these developments could sway the future strategic directions of not just PSA and SGC, but also Beckett, CGC, and Fanatics.

00:25 Discussion on PSA Acquiring SGC
00:59 Potential Business Moves in the Hobby Industry
01:35 Concerns about Market Dominance and Pricing
02:26 Consumer Confidence and Job Security in Grading
03:34 Speculations on Future Consolidations and Branding
04:03 Discussion on Grading Standards and Market Leadership
07:32 Potential Changes in Grading Scale and Standards
09:47 Challenges and Possibilities of a Universal Registry
12:21 Potential Impact of Fanatics and Other Big Players

 

1189 - Dueling Questions with Joe Orlando, Heritage

Dr. James Beckett and Joe Orlando, respected industry veteran and former CEO of PSA, discuss the dynamic evolution, emerging trends, and future outlook of the sports card and collectibles industry. Touching on the exponential growth from the 1980s to the digital age, they delve into the significance of universal population reports and the transition from relational to transactional dealing. They express ambivalent sentiments about the idea of a universal registry system, citing the complexities arising due to it. The discussion also uncovers surprising trends in the industry, underlining the growing importance of tickets, photo matching and game-worn items. This conversation further explores the potential impact of universal auction listings on dominant companies like PSA and Heritage. Finally, emphasizing the collector's emotional attachment to the 'hunt' of collection, the dialogue ends on a high note considering the future shape of the industry.

01:04 Reflecting on the Past: The 1980s Boom
01:28 Regrets and Successes: A Look Back
01:46 The Impact of Digitalization on the Industry
02:01 The Evolution of Grading
02:27 The Pros and Cons of a Universal Pop Report
03:45 Current State of the Hobby
05:02 The Potential of a Universal Registry
09:15 Surprising Trends in Collectible Categories
11:18 The Future of Auction Listings

 

1188 - Dollar Box Travels, with Rich Klein

We delve into the enticing prospect of attending the Philadelphia sports card show to graze through the dollar boxes in search of nuggets. We offer advice and insights to our friend Kyle, who is contemplating his own attendance at the show.

We touch on the potential challenges of bringing back a substantial haul of cards from the show. Recognizing the limitations of luggage space and weight restrictions, we strategize various methods of packing and shipping cards to ensure a smooth and hassle-free experience. We stress the importance of being selective in our purchases, carefully considering the value and practicality of each card before adding it to our collection.

Additionally, we explore the unique characteristics of the Philadelphia show, highlighting its vintage-oriented nature and discussing potential differences in pricing and selection compared to other shows. We encourage Kyle to approach the dollar boxes with a discerning eye, aiming for quality deals rather than sheer quantity to avoid overwhelming himself with unwieldy amounts of cards.

We share personal anecdotes, reflecting on our own experiences attending card shows and the joys and challenges that accompany them. Our main objective is to equip Kyle with the knowledge and wisdom gained from our own journeys, hoping to spare him from potential mistakes and inspire him to make the most of his own card show adventure.

1187 - 2023-24 Panini Prizm Premier League Soccer Box Analysis

We begin with sharing thoughts on soccer as a collectable sport and its potential to rise in popularity. We dissect the concept of a 'flagship' brand using Panini Prism as an example and discuss the importance of base sets in a flagship product, especially with the existence of numerous parallels in Panini Prism products. Thereafter the dilemma of choosing between soccer and "football" cards and the impact of secondary market forces on sports card value, highlighting the influence of the quality of rookie crops. Discussing his method of evaluating sports cards. I admit generally not looking up base veterans, but focusing on the more valuable cards such as autographs, game used relics, low serial number, and exotic inserts. While unpacking also drawing notable observations about packaging trends. Finally a (soft) personal critique of "silver" prisms and that the last card in the last pack was the autograph!  Concludes by expressing hope for soccer's future prominence in the world of sports card collecting.

00:51 Understanding the Concept of Flagship Brands
02:03 The Dilemma of Choosing Between Sports
02:54 The Impact of Market Forces on Card Value
05:29 Unboxing and Evaluating Soccer Cards
06:02 The Strategy of Sorting and Valuing Cards
08:13 Thoughts on Silver Prisms and Autograph Cards

 

1186 - Odds and Bronny

We delve into the concept of odds and probability, particularly in the realm of sports card investments. As a trained statistician, Dr. Beckett emphasizes that the notion of probability is seldom a coin flip, direct 50-50 scenario.  He cautions against irrational optimism and stresses informed decision making while investing in sports cards. Focusing on basketball prodigy Bronny James, son of LeBron James, he alerts investors to the risk of overvaluing a player's sports cards due to their pedigree, instead of their on-court performance. He further articulates his informative perspective on the unpredictable nature of sports card market, underlining the influence of changes in odds, collector (and bettor) perceptions, and fluctuating player performance on card prices. In closing Dr. Beckett predicts that Bronny is highly unlikely to be an NBA All-Star, which may already be optimistically baked into his asking prices. Be careful.

00:35 Understanding Odds in Sports
00:56 LeBron and Bronny: A Comparative Analysis
01:52 The Betting World and the Concept of 50-50 Odds
03:17 The Impact of Odds on Sports Card Market
04:44 Bronny's Potential in NBA and Card Market
05:57 The Risk of Betting on Bronny's Success

 

1185 - 2023 Upper Deck Goodwin Champions Hobby Box

Details of the 2023 Goodwin Champions Hobby Box by Upper Deck. The product includes a mix of different sports cards, establishing an eclectic appeal, and each pack of 18 cards is configured with the middle card usually the best. The set is suitable for ages 14 and up, which may be due to the educational component provided by the inclusion of historical and non-sports cards. He talks about base cards, which he compares to car models, where the base is the low-end, and parallels, special cards, or inserts are akin to higher-end models, letting the quality of the special cards pop against the simpler base design. He discusses unique facets of the pack, such as the tricky odds listed and the presence of 'decoys' or blank cards. He also describes the intriguing physical differences in the thickness of different packs. Dr. Beckett further expands on how he believes the product should primarily allure the buyers for its unique elements rather than just the base cards, highlighting how this product affects different platforms in the card industry marketplace such as price guides, marketplaces, grading services, and others. Lastly, he scrutinizes how other major players in the card world, including Panini and Fanatics, should learn from what Upper Deck has achieved with this product, and how post-production quality control could be ensured through focus groups. He appreciates the eclectic aesthetic and the interesting variety of cards that live up to the Goodwin Champions brand.

00:42 Packaging and Card Placement Insights
01:14 Age Recommendation and Educational Component
02:23 Base Card Design and Comparison with Luxury Cars
03:55 Multi-Sport Sets and Player Selection
04:12 Hits, Rookie Cards, and Licensing
04:57 Pack Odds and Decoys
05:34 Thick Packs vs Thin Packs
06:42 The Eclectic Nature of the Set
07:31 Sponsor Acknowledgement and Market Observations
11:45 Final Thoughts and Thanks

 

1184 - What Is a Sports Card? (with Rich Klein)

We ponder the question: What truly defines a sports card? We analyze a range of factors like material composition, size variations, and unique shapes that challenge the traditional notion of what constitutes a card. We question whether items like newspaper inserts, thick box cards, or even three-dimensional cubes can be considered cards. Furthermore, we explore the influence of intentionality, discussing whether an item's intended purpose as a collectible or its inclusion in a sports card set contributes to its classification. We acknowledge the complexities and blurred boundaries within the realm of sports cards.

1183 - Out-Takes on 10X-ing from Hobby Hotline 020324

Dr. Beckett engages during Hobby Hotline with Danny Black and Rich Klein about the concept of 10X-ing the hobby, specifically in relation to sports cards. They explore the recent news of Panini losing the UFC license to Fanatics and Tops, discussing the implications of this change. The conversation also delves into potential growth areas in the hobby, with a focus on women's basketball and college cards. They highlight the increasing popularity of women's basketball and the potential market expansion in the college card segment. Additionally, the acquisition of Press Pass by Leaf, showcasing the vibrancy and evolution of the hobby. 

1182 - Baseball Hall of Fame Mystique, with Rich Klein

A detailed discussion about the Baseball Hall of Fame and its unique significance compared to other sports hall of fames. The history of the Baseball Hall of Fame, noting its early establishment and the time advantage it had over other sports. The notion of relatability, as the individuals highlight how baseball players are often more relatable to fans compared to players in other sports.

In the card collecting world, induction into the Baseball Hall of Fame seems to have a greater impact on values. We discuss the varying collectibility of players in different sports hall of fames, highlighting examples of football and basketball players who may not have as much value in the collecting market.

We touch on the subjective nature of hall of fame voting and the challenges of evaluating players' qualifications. The positional aspects of baseball don't translate as well to football or basketball, which influences the perception of hall of fame worthiness.

There's a special aura surrounding baseball and the unique experience of visiting the Baseball Hall of Fame in Cooperstown, evoking a sense of nostalgia and stepping back in time.

We address the public nature of hall of fame voting in baseball, highlighting the transparency that comes with each ballot being made public. The speakers discuss the potential impact of online writers and their more intuitive approach to evaluating players, as well as the evolving qualifications to become a voter.

Controversial figures such as Pete Rose and players linked to steroid allegations like Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens are also touched upon. We explore the baseball hall of fame's strict stance on gambling, leading to the exclusion of certain players. We raise the question of whether the Baseball Hall of Fame's conservative approach adds to its mystique and garners more respect compared to other sports hall of fames.