Dr. James Beckett: Sports Card Insights

1187 - 2023-24 Panini Prizm Premier League Soccer Box Analysis

We begin with sharing thoughts on soccer as a collectable sport and its potential to rise in popularity. We dissect the concept of a 'flagship' brand using Panini Prism as an example and discuss the importance of base sets in a flagship product, especially with the existence of numerous parallels in Panini Prism products. Thereafter the dilemma of choosing between soccer and "football" cards and the impact of secondary market forces on sports card value, highlighting the influence of the quality of rookie crops. Discussing his method of evaluating sports cards. I admit generally not looking up base veterans, but focusing on the more valuable cards such as autographs, game used relics, low serial number, and exotic inserts. While unpacking also drawing notable observations about packaging trends. Finally a (soft) personal critique of "silver" prisms and that the last card in the last pack was the autograph!  Concludes by expressing hope for soccer's future prominence in the world of sports card collecting.

00:51 Understanding the Concept of Flagship Brands
02:03 The Dilemma of Choosing Between Sports
02:54 The Impact of Market Forces on Card Value
05:29 Unboxing and Evaluating Soccer Cards
06:02 The Strategy of Sorting and Valuing Cards
08:13 Thoughts on Silver Prisms and Autograph Cards

 

1186 - Odds and Bronny

We delve into the concept of odds and probability, particularly in the realm of sports card investments. As a trained statistician, Dr. Beckett emphasizes that the notion of probability is seldom a coin flip, direct 50-50 scenario.  He cautions against irrational optimism and stresses informed decision making while investing in sports cards. Focusing on basketball prodigy Bronny James, son of LeBron James, he alerts investors to the risk of overvaluing a player's sports cards due to their pedigree, instead of their on-court performance. He further articulates his informative perspective on the unpredictable nature of sports card market, underlining the influence of changes in odds, collector (and bettor) perceptions, and fluctuating player performance on card prices. In closing Dr. Beckett predicts that Bronny is highly unlikely to be an NBA All-Star, which may already be optimistically baked into his asking prices. Be careful.

00:35 Understanding Odds in Sports
00:56 LeBron and Bronny: A Comparative Analysis
01:52 The Betting World and the Concept of 50-50 Odds
03:17 The Impact of Odds on Sports Card Market
04:44 Bronny's Potential in NBA and Card Market
05:57 The Risk of Betting on Bronny's Success

 

1185 - 2023 Upper Deck Goodwin Champions Hobby Box

Details of the 2023 Goodwin Champions Hobby Box by Upper Deck. The product includes a mix of different sports cards, establishing an eclectic appeal, and each pack of 18 cards is configured with the middle card usually the best. The set is suitable for ages 14 and up, which may be due to the educational component provided by the inclusion of historical and non-sports cards. He talks about base cards, which he compares to car models, where the base is the low-end, and parallels, special cards, or inserts are akin to higher-end models, letting the quality of the special cards pop against the simpler base design. He discusses unique facets of the pack, such as the tricky odds listed and the presence of 'decoys' or blank cards. He also describes the intriguing physical differences in the thickness of different packs. Dr. Beckett further expands on how he believes the product should primarily allure the buyers for its unique elements rather than just the base cards, highlighting how this product affects different platforms in the card industry marketplace such as price guides, marketplaces, grading services, and others. Lastly, he scrutinizes how other major players in the card world, including Panini and Fanatics, should learn from what Upper Deck has achieved with this product, and how post-production quality control could be ensured through focus groups. He appreciates the eclectic aesthetic and the interesting variety of cards that live up to the Goodwin Champions brand.

00:42 Packaging and Card Placement Insights
01:14 Age Recommendation and Educational Component
02:23 Base Card Design and Comparison with Luxury Cars
03:55 Multi-Sport Sets and Player Selection
04:12 Hits, Rookie Cards, and Licensing
04:57 Pack Odds and Decoys
05:34 Thick Packs vs Thin Packs
06:42 The Eclectic Nature of the Set
07:31 Sponsor Acknowledgement and Market Observations
11:45 Final Thoughts and Thanks

 

1184 - What Is a Sports Card? (with Rich Klein)

We ponder the question: What truly defines a sports card? We analyze a range of factors like material composition, size variations, and unique shapes that challenge the traditional notion of what constitutes a card. We question whether items like newspaper inserts, thick box cards, or even three-dimensional cubes can be considered cards. Furthermore, we explore the influence of intentionality, discussing whether an item's intended purpose as a collectible or its inclusion in a sports card set contributes to its classification. We acknowledge the complexities and blurred boundaries within the realm of sports cards.

1183 - Out-Takes on 10X-ing from Hobby Hotline 020324

Dr. Beckett engages during Hobby Hotline with Danny Black and Rich Klein about the concept of 10X-ing the hobby, specifically in relation to sports cards. They explore the recent news of Panini losing the UFC license to Fanatics and Tops, discussing the implications of this change. The conversation also delves into potential growth areas in the hobby, with a focus on women's basketball and college cards. They highlight the increasing popularity of women's basketball and the potential market expansion in the college card segment. Additionally, the acquisition of Press Pass by Leaf, showcasing the vibrancy and evolution of the hobby. 

1182 - Baseball Hall of Fame Mystique, with Rich Klein

A detailed discussion about the Baseball Hall of Fame and its unique significance compared to other sports hall of fames. The history of the Baseball Hall of Fame, noting its early establishment and the time advantage it had over other sports. The notion of relatability, as the individuals highlight how baseball players are often more relatable to fans compared to players in other sports.

In the card collecting world, induction into the Baseball Hall of Fame seems to have a greater impact on values. We discuss the varying collectibility of players in different sports hall of fames, highlighting examples of football and basketball players who may not have as much value in the collecting market.

We touch on the subjective nature of hall of fame voting and the challenges of evaluating players' qualifications. The positional aspects of baseball don't translate as well to football or basketball, which influences the perception of hall of fame worthiness.

There's a special aura surrounding baseball and the unique experience of visiting the Baseball Hall of Fame in Cooperstown, evoking a sense of nostalgia and stepping back in time.

We address the public nature of hall of fame voting in baseball, highlighting the transparency that comes with each ballot being made public. The speakers discuss the potential impact of online writers and their more intuitive approach to evaluating players, as well as the evolving qualifications to become a voter.

Controversial figures such as Pete Rose and players linked to steroid allegations like Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens are also touched upon. We explore the baseball hall of fame's strict stance on gambling, leading to the exclusion of certain players. We raise the question of whether the Baseball Hall of Fame's conservative approach adds to its mystique and garners more respect compared to other sports hall of fames.

1181 - Out-Takes on Grading from Hobby Hotline 020324

Dr. James Beckett engages with Danny Black and Mike Moynihan, discussing a conversation about the importance of grading in the sports card industry and the compensation of card graders. Dr. Beckett emphasizes the need for a skilled wage for graders, considering the level of knowledge and training required for the job. They also touch on the detection of fake autographs and the challenges that arise with popular players like Babe Ruth or Mickey Mantle. The conversation explores the role of technology in the authentication process, with mentions of micro dots and DNA detection. We conclude with a discussion about the recurring battle against fraud in the sports card market and the importance of maintaining integrity in this great hobby we all love. 

1180 - Celebrities and Cards (Taylor Swift?) with Rich Klein

A detailed discussion about the relationship between celebrities, sports cards, and the collecting hobby. It begins with a mention of Taylor Swift and how her presence has elevated the demand for certain sports cards, specifically Travis Kelce, Jason Kelce, and Patrick Mahomes. The positive publicity celebrities can bring to the hobby and the potential value of including combo cards that feature both athletes and popular culture figures.

Referencing famous figures from the past, such as Spike Lee's presence at Knicks games and his inclusion in card sets alongside Michael Jordan. Exploring the idea of creating a dual relic card featuring Kelce and Taylor Swift. The importance of wider audience engagement and the potential impact of card companies like Fanatics in expanding into music-related cards.

There's a variety of opinions within the hobby community, with some individuals expressing concerns about the inclusion of celebrities and the fear of diluting the purity of the hobby. However general agreement that broadening the audience and embracing the superstar orientation can be beneficial, as long as it is done with a level of care and consideration.

Also touches on the impact of TCGs like Pokemon on the sports card community, speculating whether the rise of music cards and other entertainment-related cards might draw away collectors from sports cards. Despite these potential challenges, we trust the enduring nature of collecting and the possibility of coexistence between different types of cards.

We conclude with a fanciful scenario where the Chiefs win the Super Bowl, and Travis Kelsey proposes to Taylor Swift during the celebration, suggesting the creation of a commemorative card for that moment. We emphasize the importance of storytelling and the connection between the hobby and collectors.

1179 - Panini 2023 Football Box Battle: Absolute vs. Phoenix

A review of two different Panini football card boxes: 2023 Phoenix and 2023 Absolute. I share my experience opening and examining these boxes, offering insights into their contents, prices, and overall value.  As a statistician, Dr. Beckett addresses the misconception of loaded or conspiratorial boxes, emphasizing that while the probability of getting a great card is unlikely, someone will eventually get it due to chance, rather than any special advantages. He also mentions the allure and fun of box breaks and acknowledges that his own preference lies somewhere between low-end and high-end boxes.

We discusses various aspects related to the pricing of boxes and the factors that contribute to their costs and sale prices. He explains that the price of a box is determined based on the costs associated with its production, the history and brand value of the product, and the assets included within the box, such as autographs, game-used material, and special treatments on inserts. Dr. Beckett also argues against the notion that the price is determined solely by the cost of cardboard and ink, clarifying that serial numbers and rarity themselves do not significantly impact the price.

Throughout Dr. Beckett delves into the card collecting experience, sharing his thoughts on brand continuity, package design, player images, and the importance of dual licensing from the Players Association and the leagues. He reflects on the challenges faced by companies in titling and categorizing their products, especially in relation to the years indicated on the cards. He mentions the trend of increasing the number of cards, creating a wide range of parallels, and explains that market research supports demand for more variations of player cards.

Dr. Beckett also touches on the difficulty of tracking and valuing numerous card variations, particularly those associated with less popular or obscure players. He expresses gratitude to Panini for their contribution to the growth of the basketball hobby and acknowledges the need for responsible growth in the sports card industry.

The script concludes with Dr. Beckett revealing that his personal preference leaned towards the Phoenix football box due to its larger number of cards, appealing design, and potential inclusion of a player that he may consider displaying on his wall. However, he acknowledges the subjective nature of individual preferences in card collecting and emphasizes the importance of enjoying the hobby, opening boxes, and finding joy in the process.

1178 - Out-Takes on Strongsville and Grading from Mike Moynihan

Mike had an agenda for our time together - a good agenda!  So easy to talk about the hobby we love with kindred spirits - thanks Mike - feed the Beast!